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International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 2009 9(3):497-528;
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© The author [2009]. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the Japan Association of International Relations; all rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org

A not so dangerous dyad: China's rise and Sino–Japanese rivalry

Kentaro Sakuwa

Department of Political Science, Indiana University, Bloomington, 1100 E. 7th St. Bloomington, IN 47405-7110, USA
Email: ksakuwa{at}gmail.com

In contemporary East Asia, political rivalry between China and Japan is often discussed. However, little has been done to systematically analyze the bilateral relationship and possible conflict escalation. In this paper, I employ the multiple-hierarchy model of regional politics offered by power transition theorists, in order to examine the recent Sino–Japanese relationship. After examining the effect of the factors suggested by the theory, I conclude that China's rise does not pose immediate destabilizing effects on regional security because the relative rise of China's capability is at best moderate. I also argue that the dyadic relationship has been pacified by several factors such as interest similarity and defense-dominant geography, in spite of China's overall rise. Finally, I offer some policy recommendations suggested by the theory-driven analysis.

Received for publication November 13, 2008. Accepted for publication July 2, 2009.


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